Friday, February 20, 2009

Anarchy


Among Wikipedia's numerous definitions of anarchy are the following two:
  • "Absence of government; a state of lawlessness due to the absence or inefficiency of the supreme power; political disorder."
  • "A social state in which there is no governing person or group of persons, but each individual has absolute liberty (without the implication of disorder)."
The first can be symbolized by the current condition of such failed states like Somalia and Sierra Leone. The second is a Utopian definition, whose concept is worshiped by ultra liberals,Neo-punks and fringe intellectuals. The first is what we are approaching in many third world nations. As the nation state dissolves in those areas where it has been forced by colonial aligned borders,as environmental and population issues increase, the future for a large part of the world is some form of anarchy. Powers will be aligned with tribal loyalties,religions,cartels,and mafias all scrambling to exploit whatever they can out of a deteriorting base.
To paraphrase Thomas Homer-Dixon's analogy, successful states will be isolated, like riding in a stretch limo through Skid Row. Robert D.Kaplan's description, though mind boggling, is essentailly true. I quote from "The Coming Anarchy":
"Outside the stretch limo would be a rundown,crowded planet of skinhead Cossacks and juju warriors, influenced by the worst refuse of Western pop culture and ancient tribal hatreds,battling over scraps of overused earth in guerilla conflicts that ripple across continents and intersect in no discernible pattern__ meaning there's no easy-to-define threat."
This Mad Max world, popularized by Hollywood, was always thought to be the aftermath of nuclear conflagration. It seems we have achieved it without dropping the nuke.

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