I have been, like many, following recent events in Iran with interest. Anyone who is following this can be confused by the serpentine channels of power within the Islamic government. In the final analysis, this really isn't about Moussavi and Ahmedinejad, its about a power struggle within the ranks of the Ayatullahs that run Iran. Between Ali Khamenei and Ayatullah Rafsanjani. The students are carrying the torch of this dissent. The military and conservative mullahs are reacting. Ayatullah Khamenei said yesterday in essence, that the election was an expression of divine will. As Iran's Supreme Leader and, according to the dictates set up by Ayatullah Ruhallah Khomeini, he is as infallible as a medieval pope. Apparently the masses reject this. This is a big crack in the theocracy. We have heard from the Mullahs, both sides, as they too are divided. We have heard from the students and intellectuals. The poor and under educated are manipulated by religious dogma and hatred to side with the government( Gee, just like in America!) The military stands ready. But what do the bazaaris think.? Bazaaris in Iranina society are the middle class shop owners from the bazaars and the rich merchants that rose from this class. In 1979 they were frimly behind Khomeini, but that is probably changing. Iran's economy is challenged today. Money is spent on a nuclear weapons program, financing Hamas and Hezbollah and little trickles down to the bazaars. Ahmedinijed promised economic reform but it didn't happen. Average Iranians must fear direct confrontation with Israel, who will nuke their weapons program without a second thought. They also fear war with America. Remember it was just 20 years ago that Iran was engaged with a long and bloody war with Saddam Hussein. Most bazaaris are old enough to remember those days. Where will they throw their power too? Whatever happens, Irans Islamic Revolution is finished, maybe not today, but in the final analysis the theocracy as we see it will fall. Who knows what will replace it?
Sunday, June 21, 2009
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